美联储快刀子剁肉

美国东部时间9月21日，美联储会宣布上调联邦基金利率目标区间75个基点到3%至3.25%之间，这也是一年内美联储第三次大幅度加息75个基点。美联储此次加息已经将联邦基金利率提高至2008年初以来的最高水平。此前中美两国资本市场早已对于如此迅猛的加息幅度做出反应。要怎样看待此次美联储加息决议？美联储后续将会有哪些动作？

（文末附鲍威尔会后演讲全文及翻译）

文/许博男

北京时间9月22日凌晨2点，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）如期发布最新的利率决议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间上调75个基点到3%至3.25%之间，与市场预期基本一致。在此次会议前，市场对于本次决议关注度颇高，主要是有两方面原因：

一是杰克逊霍尔会议鲍威尔讲话加强了市场的鹰派预期。就在8月26日召开的杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会中鲍威尔简短且有力的讲话加剧了市场对于本月利率决议的担忧。讲话中鲍威尔将通胀目标定调为“联邦公开市场委员会目前的首要任务，是将通胀降到2%的目标水平”，同时总结了70年代美联储关于货币政策的审议和决定的三个教训——“美联储要为通货膨胀负责、要充分考虑市场对通胀的预期、货币政策必须坚持到目标达成为止”，整体定调“鹰”气逼人。二是此次决议中美联储将会公布经济预测。每年八次的议息会议中，3月、7月、9月、12月都在美联储官网上被标示为“与经济预测相关的会议”（Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections）。由于此前美国劳工局公布的数据显示8月美国CPI同比增速8.3%，仍然超过8.1%的市场预期；但另一方面当前美国非农就业数据仍然强劲，市场对于美联储关于就业与物价二者的取向尚不明确，此次会议公布的经济预测将会对投资与研究者理解后续调控方向有明显暗示作用。

01会议决议：鹰派延续，连续第三次加息75个基点

美联储9月利率决议如期加息75个基点，至3.00-3.25%，鹰派基调延续，但也基本符合预期。此前高盛在9月13号发布的研究报告中预测美联储将在本次加息75个基点，并在11月和12月再次加息50个基点，2023年将以更小幅度加息一次，将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%至4.50%的区间（原文：We expect more Fed tightening, a 75bp hike in Sept vs.50bp previously and 50bp hikes in Nov and Dec vs.25bp hikes previously, for an end-2022 Fed funds rate of4-4.25%, on the back of recent hawkish Fed commentary and an upside surprise in August CPI inflation data）。上月鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上8分钟鹰派发言后，CME直接将加息50bp、75bp、100bp的概率调至0%、85%、15%，一度引发市场对于加息100bp的担忧。此次会议决议虽然打消了加息100bp这一顾虑，但是75bp仍然同预期中一样“鹰”。美股市场也对此做出了一定反应，开盘时由于前期持续走弱提前消化了会议带来的利空维持涨势，但发布会结束后三大股指集体跳水，道琼斯、标普、纳斯达克跌幅分别达-1.70%、-1.71%、-1.79%。

02经济预测：美联储对于经济衰退和物价上涨表示了同样程度担忧

观察美联储下一步动作的核心在于洞悉其对于物价与就业之间的取舍关系，从此次经济预测情况看，美联储对于经济衰退和物价上涨同样表示担忧。

在经济与就业方面：本次发布的经济预测中，大幅下修对于2022实际GDP预测（中位数）增速至0.2%，6月预测值为1.7%；小幅上调对于全年失业率的预测至3.8%，6月预测值为3.7%。这也表现出了美联储已经进一步注意到经济步入衰退周期的前兆，连续两次对于经济与就业的预测都向悲观调整。但另一方面值得注意的是，在对于更长周期（Longer run）的数据预测上来看，从3月到6月再到9月，美联储针对实际GDP增速、全年失业率的预测中位数并未出现变化，可以看出美联储对于衰退的担忧更加集中于短期视角上。在物价方面：本次预测中同时上调了PCE增速与核心PCE增速，其中上调PCE至5.4%，6月预测值为5.2%，上调核心PCE至4.3%，6月预测值为4.5%，美联储对于通胀的担忧仍在延续。

03会后讲话：提及“允许就业软化”（Softening of Labor），但也提及转向条件

鲍威尔在声明发布后发表讲话，其中传递的内容颇多。

关于物价的定调，鲍威尔表示“尽管当前通胀仍然在上升周期，但长期通胀预期仍然稳定。然而这并不是满足于现状的理由，本轮高通胀持续的时间越长，高通胀预期就会更加根深蒂固”、“我们意识到，高通货膨胀带来了严重的后果，因为它侵蚀了购买力，特别是对那些最无力支付食品、住房和交通等必需品价格上涨的人。我们高度关注高通货膨胀给我们带来的风险，我们也将坚定致力于将通货膨胀率恢复到2%的目标。”

关于经济的定调，鲍威尔虽然明确表示“我们调低了对经济增速的预测，我们对于实际GDP增长的预测中值今年仅为0.2%，明年也仅为1.2%，远低于较长期正常增长率的预测中值”，但是对于政策取向，鲍威尔仍然认为“尽管经济增速放缓，但劳动力市场却表现十分抢眼”，并且在讲话最后明确了政策取向立场——“我们认为，当前为了恢复价格稳定，我们必须要在一段时间内保持收缩的政策取向”，也提及了允许“就业软化”（Softening of Labor），取向十分明显。

此外值得关注的是，鲍威尔也首次在讲话中提及收缩进程的退出，即“在未来某个时间节点，如果我们对于经济和通胀影响的评估发生转变，我们将会考虑放缓加息的步伐”。（At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases, while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation.）

04后续展望：紧缩基调继续，后续仍有125BP加息的空间

从本月点阵图看，相较于6月，本次美联储决策者预计的加息力度明显更强。点阵图显示，2022年底的利率中位数为4.4%，高于2022年6月的3.4%。2023年，目标利率中位数为4.6%，而2022年6月为3.8%。2024年，目标利率中位数为3.9%，而2022年6月为3.4%。另外，9月点阵图新增的2025年利率预期显示，2025年的初始中位数利率预计为2.9%。今年以来美联储累计加息幅度已经达到300bp，结合点阵图看加息进程还要继续一段时间，同时结合美联储对于长期经济的正向预期与鲍威尔的鹰派取向定调，短期内政策取向并不会转变。但另一方面，虽然从鲍威尔讲话于与本月点阵图看在物价与就业中美联储明显选择了前者，但是在经济预测中对于经济衰退的隐忧、在会后讲话中对于退出紧缩周期话术的软化，都意味着加息进程虽然仍在持续，但曙光已经初现。

鲍威尔会后演讲全文及翻译

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

下午好。众所周知，长期以来我们一直致力于将通货膨胀率控制到2%。在这一过程总，我们既有必要的政策工具，也有恢复价格稳定的决心，我们坚信我们一定可以保障美国家庭和企业的共同利益。价格稳定是美联储的责任，也是经济发展的基石。没有价格的稳定，我们的劳动力市场就无法为经济增长做出持续且强劲的贡献，从而使每个美国人从中受益。

Today, the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by 3/4 percentage point, and we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. In addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. I will have more to say about today’s monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments.

今天，FOMC将政策利率上调75个基点，我也认为这是合理的。我们有意将政策调整到一个足够强的水平，以使通胀率回到2%。此外，我们正在继续大幅缩减资产负债表规模的进程。

The U.S. economy has slowed from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. Recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production. Growth in consumer spending has slowed from last year’s rapid pace, in part reflecting lower real disposable income and tighter financial conditions. Activity in the housing sector has weakened significantly, in large part reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment, while weaker economic growth abroad is restraining exports. As shown in our Summary of Economic Projections, since June FOMC participants have marked down their projections for economic activity, with the median projection for real GDP growth standing at just 0.2 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year, well below the median estimate of the longer-run normal growth rate.

美国经济已经从2021年的历史高增长率放缓，这反映了疫情之后的再次开放。近期指标显示支出和生产出现温和增长。消费支出增速较去年的快速放缓，从一定程度上反映了实际可支配收入下降和金融环境收紧。住房部门的活动明显减弱，这在很大程度上反映了抵押贷款利率的上升。利率上升和产出增长放缓似乎也抑制了企业固定资产投资，而海外经济走弱也在抑制出口。正如我们在《经济预测》中所写的，自6月以来，我们调低了对经济增速的预测，实际GDP增长的预测中值今年仅为0.2%，明年也仅为1.2%，远低于较长期正常增长率的预测中值。

Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market has remained extremely tight, with the unemployment rate near a 50-year low, job vacancies near historical highs, and wage growth elevated. Job gains have been robust, with employment rising by an average of 378,000 jobs per month over the last three months. The labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. The labor force participation rate showed a welcome uptick in August but is little changed since the beginning of the year. FOMC participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing the upward pressure on wages and prices. The median projection in the SEP for the unemployment rate rises to 4.4 percent at the end of next year, one-half percentage point higher than in the June projections. Over the next three years, the median unemployment rate runs above the median estimate of its longer-run normal level.

尽管经济增速放缓，但劳动力市场却表现十分抢眼，失业率接近这50年的低点，职位供给空缺接近历史高位，工资增速上升。目前就业增长势头十分强劲，过去三个月就业岗位平均每月增加37.8万个。当然这也导致劳动力市场持续失衡，对工人的需求大大超过了可用工人的供应。8月份的劳动参与率显示出明显的上升，自年初以来一直保持了这个势头。我们预计，随着时间的推移，劳动力市场的供需状况将更好地达到平衡，从而缓解工资-物价螺旋上行的压力。本月我们的预测对明年年底失业率的预估中值提升至4.4%，较6月预估高出0.5个百分点。未来三年，失业率中值将高于其较长期正常水平的预估中值。

Inflation remains well above our 2 percent longer-run goal. Over the 12 months ending in July, total PCE prices rose 6.3 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.6 percent. In August, the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index was 8.3 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 6.3 percent. Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services. Although gasoline prices have turned down in recent months, they remain well above year-earlier levels, in part reflecting Russia’s war against Ukraine, which has boosted prices for energy and food and has created additional upward pressure on inflation. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 5.4 percent this year and falls to 2.8 percent next year, 2.3 percent in 2024, and 2 percent in 2025; participants continue to see risks to inflation as weighted to the upside.

目前通货膨胀率仍远高于我们2%的长期目标。截至7月份，过去的一年中个人消费价格总额上涨了6.3%，剔除食品和能源后的核心个人消费物价上涨4.6%。8月消费者价格指数在一年中上涨了8.3%，核心CPI变化为6.3%，广义商品和服务价格压力仍然不小。尽管汽油价格最近几个月有所下降，但仍远高于上年同期水平，这在一定程度上反映了俄乌冲突推高了能源和食品价格，给通胀带来了上行压力。我们这次对今年总PCE通胀的预测中值为5.4%，明年将降至2.8%，2024年为2.3%，2025年为2%。我们也继续认为通胀风险倾向于上行。

Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. But that is not grounds for complacency; the longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

根据对家庭、企业和各类研究者的调查与以金融机构的预测，尽管当前通胀仍然在上升周期，但长期通胀预期仍然稳定。但这并不是满足于现状的理由，本轮高通胀持续的时间越长，高通胀预期就会更加根深蒂固。

The Fed’s monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective.

我们的使命是为美国人民带来最好就业环境和稳定的物价。我们意识到，高通货膨胀带来了严重的后果，因为它侵蚀了购买力，特别是对那些最无力支付食品、住房和交通等必需品价格上涨的人。我们高度关注高通货膨胀给我们带来的风险，我们也将坚定致力于将通货膨胀率恢复到2%的目标。

At today’s meeting the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 3/4 percentage point, bringing the target range to 3 to 3-1/4 percent. And we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet, which plays an important role in firming the stance of monetary policy.

在今天的会议上，委员会将联邦基金利率目标区间上调了75个基点，将目标区间提高到3%至3% -3.25%个百分点。我们正在继续大幅缩减资产负债表规模的进程，这对巩固货币政策立场起到了重要作用。

Over coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, consistent with inflation returning to 2 percent. We anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate; the pace of those increases will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy. With today’s action, we have raised interest rates by 3 percentage points this year. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases, while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible.

在未来几个月里，我们将致力于将通货膨胀恢复到2%目标，并随时跟踪其具体恢复情况。我们认为继续上调联邦基金利率目标区间将是应有之义，加息的速度将继续取决于即将出炉的数据和经济运行的态势。通过今天调整，我们在今年年内已经将利率提高了3个百分点。在未来某个时间节点，如果我们对于经济和通胀影响的评估发生转变，我们将会考虑放缓加息的步伐。我们将继续在会议上尽可能清晰地传达我们的想法。

Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. As shown in the SEP, the median projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is 4.4 percent at the end of this year, 1 percentage point higher than projected in June. The median projection rises to 4.6 percent at the end of next year and declines to 2.9 percent by the end of 2025, still above the median estimate of its longer-run value. Of course, these projections do not represent a Committee decision or plan, and no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now.

我们认为，当前为了恢复价格稳定，我们必须要在一段时间内保持收缩的政策立场。历史已经告诉过我们不要过早放松政策。从本月的决议看，今年年底联邦基金利率适宜水平的预测中值为4.4%，比6月份的预测高出1个百分点。预测中值在明年年底上升至4.6%，到2025年底下降至2.9%，仍高于其长期价值的预估中值。当然，这些预测并不代表委员会的决定或计划，也没有人确切知道一年甚至更久之后的经济会是什么样子。

We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth, and there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.

我们正在采取有力和快速的措施来调节总需求，使其与供应更好地协调一致。我们的首要目标是利用我们的政策工具将通货膨胀率降至目标2%，并保持长期通胀预期正常。降低通胀需要持续一段的经济增长，劳动力市场可能会出现疲软的表现。但是恢复价格稳定对于为实现就业最大化和长期价格稳定至关重要，我们将坚持下去，我们有信心完成这一任务。

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.